Wednesday 17 December 2014

Lightning in a changing climate

When speaking of the possible consequences of climate change,  the increase of the sea level, the intensity and frequency increase of hurricanes, ocean acidification and many other effects (which are enough to worry about) come to our mind. 
However, according to Romps et al, now we have to also worry about an increase of lightnings. On a paper titled "Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming" and published on the November issue of Science, they concluded that global warming will also result in an exponential increase in the production of lightnings during storms, one of the main causes of wildfires. 
These findings are not new: Price et al. 1994, also studied how global warming would increase the number of lightning-caused wildfires finding "a possible increase in lightning-caused fires in the US of 44% [...] with a 78% increase in the area burned by these fires".


Image: wleog.org
According to Romps et al. findings, climate change is causing a warmer atmosphere which holds more moisture, and this is one of the key ingredients to trigger lightnings.
As they explain in their article in Science, current lightning predictions are based essentially on the thickness of the storm clouds (higher clouds generate more lightnings). However, these models do not account other physical factors as the amount of moisture in the air or the potential of a storm cloud to generate air updraft. Therefore, they incorporated these factors in their prediction model.

What does this new study predict?
According to the developed equations, lightnings would increase exponentially, this means that in the next century it is estimated that the frequency of lightning increases by a 50% in the US territory. (combined with the expected longer and more frequent heat waves (Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004), this becomes a ticking time bomb).
Romps et al, explain as well that when lightning occurs a large amounts of ozone (which in excess is a powerful greenhouse gas) is released and this fact becomes a negative feedback for the climate system.
However, if we want to look in the bright side, lightnings also produce nitrogen oxides which indirectly reduce levels of methane, another important greenhouse gas.

Together with the increasing seismic activity, this is one of the oddest climate change effects I have seen. What do you think?
Btw, here you have Bill McGuire's (UCL geologist) book about how climate change could trigger earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes.


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